The Wall Street Journal recently ran a touching story about the “Shot Heard Round the World,” which for my father’s generation referred to the historic home run that Bobby Thompson hit off of the Brooklyn Dodgers’ Ralph Branca to give the New York Giants the 1951 National League Pennant. For that generation it was one of the most famous moments in sports.

For my generation another “Shot Heard Round the World” happened in college basketball on January 19, 1974 when Notre Dame’s Dwight Clay buried a shot from the corner to end UCLA’s record setting 88-game wining streak. After the game, the Notre Dame faithful celebrated their ascension to the top ranking by boasting that “God made Notre Dame #1.”

Interestingly, both of these historic sports moments have a story within the story, which is far less celebratory. Perhaps success became a burden to the respective heroes…

Controversy and Compassion… As the Wall Street Journal article explains, Bobby Thompson has had to live with the controversy about the Giants stealing the pitcher’s signs from their clubhouse in center field during that game. While this wasn’t illegal at the time, it certainly puts the historic home run in a different light. Thompson has also been troubled by the impact that game had on the man he will be forever linked with, the opposing pitcher, Ralph Branca.

While Irish basketball fans are quick to recall the historic upset of UCLA, they usually forget the rematch played one week later when UCLA regained the #1 ranking by thrashing the Irish 94 – 75. The tit for tat headline read, “The Lord giveth, but the Bruins taketh away.”

Hedge Fund Heroes… On the investment scene the heroes over the last few years have been hedge fund managers, particularly those who focus on investing in commodities. Recently, there have been stories about how some of these high flyers have crashed and burned. Invariably their demise resulted from too much success. I know that is a problem many of us would like to have. But I do think there is a message in these stories perhaps similar to what happened on the ball field and basketball court. Perhaps the markets giveth but the markets taketh away…

There is a counter balancing phenomenon controlling the stock market today. This phenomenon is most apparent in the fluctuations in the price of oil and natural gas.

After the most recent price drop, oil and natural gas are selling well below their highs set earlier this year. The consensus is now hopeful that inflation will slow, giving a boost to consumer spending as we approach the holiday season. This is a drastic turn around from the days when $100 per barrel oil seemed a foregone conclusion. Despite this encouraging development, we all know that serious geopolitical risks remain. It is a fact of life that we are one terrorist strike away from potential disruption in oil supply, or at the least a fear-driven spike in the price of oil and natural gas. The markets giveth, but the markets taketh away…

Housing has been another volatile sector, where rising mortgage rates and declining home prices are negatively impacting the all important consumer. Strategists fear that the refinancing boom, which was a tailwind behind consumer spending over the last decade, will now work in reverse.

On the positive side… Time and innovation are two potential remedies for the psychological quagmire that is depressing investor sentiment. In one important sense, time represents the potential for freedom and democracy to overcome oppression and radical theology. Moreover, despite these dire political challenges and economic uncertainty there is perpetual hope in innovation. For example, significant investment dollars are pouring into research and development of alternative fuel technologies including wind, solar, fuel cells, and other areas as well.

An anxious market… Which leaves the market where it has been for some time, struggling to find a sustainable positive catalyst to end this frustrating cycle of give and take. In the short run, the potential for a year-end rally depends on a rebound in consumer spending. My sense is that retail sales will be respectable during the holiday season, and certainly better than the dire predictions of a few months back, but are unlikely to be strong enough to surprise on the upside. At the same time, the Fed may be on the sidelines for the foreseeable future, which puts on hold the potential positive catalyst of lower interest rates.

Finally, dissident shareholders and hedge fund managers with cash to burn are on the prowl for undervalued companies, in which they can buy a controlling interest or the entire company out right. This increases market volatility, and on the margin it does tend to give a boost to investor psychology. Unfortunately, it would take a wave of huge deals to spark a sustained market rally, especially in the context of all the economic and geopolitical uncertainty that stubbornly hangs over the market.

Perhaps the great bull market of the 80s and 90s, and the excesses of the .com bubble have become a burden for the market. Time and innovation…and some day, hopefully, we will witness the next “Shot Heard Round the World.”